Weather Outlook

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Date & Time: 10/03/2022 @ 9:30 AM MST

Forecaster: Henz, D.
 
Synopsis:
The monsoon season officially came to a close on Friday, but that doesn’t mean an extended break for storms. We are still in the thick of transition season where the influence of Pacific disturbances can interact with lingering monsoon moisture. This scenario will play out to start the new week as a Pacific shortwave disturbance digs south across the lower Great Basin bringing a significant uptick in storm activity to the northern half of AZ. Across southcentral AZ, activity will be focused across the higher terrain areas though isolated storms will be possible into the lower deserts later this afternoon through the overnight hours along with windier conditions. Storm chances will linger the next few days though most activity will remain to the north and east of the Phoenix area. Otherwise, high temperatures will generally hover in the mid to upper 90s with overnight lows consistently dipping into the mid to low 70s.

For today plan on mostly sunny skies into the afternoon before increasing storm chances. Afternoon temperatures will climb into the 96˚F-98˚F range around the Valley. Breezy winds will hover in the 7-15mph range with gustier afternoon/evening conditions in the 20-30mph range. Storm chances should initiate across the Mogollon Rim/White Mtns early this afternoon. Activity will expand south/east into northern portions of the County this afternoon and potentially into the lower deserts by this evening/tonight. Gusty winds and blowing dust will be the main threats though localized heavy downpours are possible with any stronger storms. Conditions will be monitored closely into this evening and updates/statements will be issued if necessary.

For tomorrow plan on early morning debris clouds and possible lingering showers before rapid clearing. Daytime highs will settle into the 95˚F-97˚F range around the Valley. Variable winds will hover in the 5-10mph range with localized gustier conditions into the evening. Lingering moisture and forcing from our passing disturbance could lead to additional storms during the afternoon/evening. The focus for most of this activity should remain across the higher terrain areas north and east of the County. Heading into Wednesday plan on mostly sunny skies with afternoon temperatures in the mid 90s. Afternoon/evening storm chances will persist across the County though we’ll have to see how much moisture will remain and steering winds for better ideas on coverage. We’ll have more on this tomorrow.

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